💥MSO Continue to Crush Estimates

Earnings: Curaleaf, Trulieve, Cresco Labs, TerrAscend. Oxnard restarts Cannabis program. Public liquidity a massive advantage for LPs over MSOs. Meadow open-source SAFE agreement modified for Cannabis

Nov 22, 2020

🌿Industry

City of Oxnard restarts Retail Cannabis program. The process is being restarted due to inconsistencies that were discovered in its City Code regarding the appeal process for applicants who were denied a retail permit. The city will now issue 16 licenses (previously 10) by March 2021 — with 13 Retail Cannabis Permits and 3 local equity retail cannabis permits.

Post-election Cannabis stock price moves show benefit of public liquidity. Aurora’s average daily volume increased twelvefold from $76M per day to $901M. Tilray’s quadrupled to $292M from $67M. Collectively, the Canadian daily average U.S. dollar volume quintupled to $1.8B from $373M in the week after the election. In comparison, 14 U.S. operators’ daily dollar volume tripled to $128M, but this still remains less than Canopy Growth’s average daily dollar volume for the past year. In total, the Canadian operators trade 9-14 times as much as the U.S. operators, led by Aurora.

CO Summer Cannabis sales thrive despite collapse of state’s tourism industry.

Sales of recreational Cannabis in Colorado continued to climb during the summer months, even while tourism revenue tumbled more than 50%. The state has lost $8B+ in tourism spending since March, according to the Colorado Tourism Office. Tourism officials estimate that Colorado traveler spending for the week of Nov. 7 was $264M, down from $416M during the same week in 2019. But the local cannabis industry appears to be avoiding the same hit. Year-over-year recreational marijuana sales growth topped 20% or more each month since May, with September setting a monthly sales record of ~$167M.

Legal marijuana in RI? What a difference a massive budget deficit can make. Momentum is building to legalize recreational marijuana in Rhode Island now that state budget deficits are looming and the marijuana business is booming in neighboring Massachusetts. Less than a year ago, state Senate leaders were dead set against Governor Gina M. Raimondo’s proposal to legalize recreational cannabis by setting up a system of state-controlled pot shops, much like New Hampshire’s state-run liquor stores. Senate leaders sent a much different message during and after the Nov. 6 Senate Democratic caucus. Rhode Island’s prohibition on recreational marijuana no longer makes sense given the “robust” system that Massachusetts is establishing just over the border. “We can create jobs, capture lost tax revenue, and fund important social programs,” Senate Majority Leader Michael J. McCaffrey said. The budget proposal included ~$21.8M in revenue from marijuana sales in fiscal year 2020, $21.1M in 2021, and $39.6M in 2022.

Other highlights:

VA Governor support Legalizing Adult-Use Marijuana

BCC awarded ~$30M in research grant funding to universities across CA

BET’s Smoke: Marijuana + Black America

$6B question: Which states are likely to legalize recreational marijuana in 2021?

Leafly visits Raw Garden’s 2020 harvest

Inside the Long Strange Trip to Make (Legal) Jerry Garcia-Branded Weed

Mexican Senate approves cannabis legalization bill

Harvest Health settles with ICG

SF Officials approve one-year tax reprieve for Cannabis Businesses

💵Deals / Partnerships

Meadow — open-source SAFE agreement modified for Cannabis Companies. The Cannabis SAFE has been customized for cannabis businesses and investors to incorporate the regulatory nuances of cannabis businesses. This includes a mechanism to ensure investors and the company can comply with state and local cannabis regulations when and if required (i.e., investor disclosures), and an investor acknowledgment that exempts the company from representing any compliance with certain cannabis laws such as federal law or Section 280E of the tax code. The goal of the Cannabis SAFE is to simplify the process of investing in an early-stage cannabis business.

A-Frame, a developer of celebrity-led personal care brands, raises $2M for its brand incubator. A-Frame previously raised a seed round backed by Columbia Care. The company’s first product is a hand soap, Keeper. Other brands in sun care, skincare, children and baby care, and bath and body, will follow.

Other highlights:

Harvest Health divest AR dispensary & cultivation assets for $25M

Jushi — Exercise option on Vireo’s PA Dispensary subsidiary for $5M

Aurora Cannabis Closes $172.5M offering (23M units @ $7.50/unit)

Kin Slips merges with former competitor OLO

HERBL — Exclusive Distributor of MOXIE

Jushi — increases ownership to 79% in VA-based Pharmaceutical Processor Permit Holder

C21 — Note Restructuring and Commitment for Repayment of Outstanding Debt

📄Earnings

Curaleaf — Q3 2020

Revenue: $193.2M (50% GM), 59% q/q growth
AEBITDA: $42.3M (22% margin)
NI: ($9.3M) / ($.01 EPS)
Cash: $84.6M / Debt: $280M
Closed acquisition of Grassroots, Curaleaf NJ and Maine Organic Therapy assets that were previously managed, divested $31.5M of assets in MD

Trulieve — Q3 2020

Revenue: $136.3M (75% GM), up 13% q/q, $154.9M if PA acquisitions included
Adjusted EBITDA: $67.5M (51% margin)
CFO: $73.7M
Cash: $193.4M
EPS: $0.15
Opened 9 stores during quarter, achieved 2020 goal of 68 stores nationwide

Cresco Labs — Q3 2020

Revenue: $153.3M (53% GM), 63% growth QoQ, an absolute increase of $59M
Adjusted EBITDA: $46.4M, 182% growth QoQ
CFO: $17.8M
NI: $4.9M
Third consecutive quarter with 40%+ revenue growth

TerrAscend — Q3 2020

Revenue: $51M (59% GM), up 9% q/q
Adjusted EBITDA: $17.8M (35% margin), up from $11.4M q/q
Net Loss: ($17.6M), impacted by net increase in fair value of warrants, derivative liability of $22.2M, revaluation of contingent consideration of $8.1M
Adjusted NI: $12.7M
Cash: $45M
Increase 2020E guidance to $196M+ in Revenue & $54M+ of adjusted EBITDA. Expects 2021E Revenue of $360-380M and adjusted EBITDA of $140-160M
PA — Completed additional 25% cultivation expansion, opened 3rd dispensary
CA — opened 4th dispensary in Berkeley, 5th dispensary in Capitola; commenced sales from newly expanded State Flower cultivation facility
NJ — received approval & commenced cultivation in 37,000 sq ft greenhouse
MD — acquired MD-based Grower Processor

AYR Strategies — Q3 2020

Revenue: $45.5M (60% GM), up 61% q/q, up 42% y/y
Adjusted EBITDA: $19.3M (42%)
NI: ($26.8M) / (0.96) EPS
CFO: $14M
Cash: $23M, Debt: $41M, Contingent Liabilities : $24M
$38M (loss) on changes to fair value of financial liabilities
Increased TAM by 3x w/ PA, OH, AZ entry

TILT — Q3 2020

Revenue: $40.4M (30% GM), up 5% q/q, down 12% y/y
AEBITDA: $2.8M
Net Loss: ($4.6M) Cash: $4.3M, +24% q/q for plant-touching assets
Sold blackbird (4% of rev.) back to founder for $15M ($10M note, $5M assumed liabilities). TILT bought Blackbird for $50M back in January 2019 ($5M cash, $45M stock).

Schwazze — Q3 2020

Revenue: $7.4M (37% GM), up 37% q/q and 39% y/y
EBITDA: ($3.6M) (-49% margin)
Net loss: ($2.9M)
Cash: $3M (9/30/20)
Will complete acquisition of Star Buds’ 14 CO locations during Q4, expected PF Revenue for the combined companies for 2020 will be ~$90M

Harborside — Q3 2020

Revenue: $19.6M (55% GM), 21% q/q, 43% y/y
$8.9M wholesale, 71% q/q; increased yields, premium flower, volumes, prices
$10.7M retail, 3% q/q
Owned products: 9-14 of top 25
EBITDA: $4.5M
2020E Revenue: ~$62M (8-10% EBITDA margin)

🧔People

Curaleaf CEO to continue as Executive Vice Chairman, President appointed next CEO. Joseph Bayern joined Curaleaf in December 2019, previously served as President of Indus Holdings and has held management roles with Dr. Pepper Snapple Group and Cadbury.

Matt Barnes to launch Eaze’s Social Equity Cannabis Business Incubator Nationally. The program, Momentum, will select ten businesses to participate in a 12-week curriculum and receive grants for $50,000 each. Eaze will also provide product development and marketing support, as well as access to its retailer network.