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💼 Background. Hirsh Jain is the Founder of Ananda Strategy, a consultancy that advises leading cannabis brands, retailers, ancillary technology businesses and investors. Ananda represents many of California’s leading retailers, and has helped them open many of the top-performing dispensaries in the state. Hirsh was previously the Director of Government Affairs at Caliva, a vertically-integrated California cannabis operator. Prior to Caliva, Hirsh was the West Coast Director of Government Affairs at MedMen, a leading cannabis retailer. Before working in cannabis, Hirsh was the Global Policy Lead at Airbnb, working closely with government officials to develop legal and regulatory frameworks that enabled Airbnb to operate legally and successfully throughout the world. Before that, he was an Engagement Manager at McKinsey & Company, working in the company's Public Sector Practice.

🏬 Markets. Hirsh keeps up to date with all recreational markets as well as markets that are expected to open in the near-future. He finds the best way to do this is through local news in each market.

Average dispensary revenue across states for 2/3 - 2/5 — Source: Headset

Missouri. $8,500,900 in recreational sales and $4,189,065 in medical sales from Friday to Sunday on opening weekend (February 3-5). Hirsh thinks that even with a month less of recreational sales, Missouri has the potential to match or exceed sales vs. Illinois ($1.5B in 2022 sales, with $479M coming from out-of-state residents). Missouri has lower taxes (6% sales tax) and sufficient supply. Flora Farms shipped 1,200 lbs of flower/trim (estimated capacity of 2,500 lbs of cannabis flower/month from two facilities) last week from its three-license (each allows for up to 30,000 sq ft of flowering canopy) cultivation facility in Humansville, MO.

[Note: I’ll be in St. Louis and Kansas City March 6–10 if anyone wants to join or connect]

Florida. Trulieve has contributed $25.5M to get recreational Cannabis on Florida's 2024 ballot. The contributions have gone to the Smart & Safe Florida political committee, which has received only $124.58 in other contributions. The committee had spent about $24.9M as of January 31, 2023, with almost all of the spending related to petition gathering and verification. he state had received 291,999 valid petition signatures for the proposal. That is more than enough to trigger a crucial review of the proposed ballot wording by the Florida Supreme Court. The committee would need to submit 891,589 signatures to get on the ballot. Hirsh estimates it’ll take $100MM+ for the ballot measure to have a shot.

**Green:** open; **Red:** Likely to open in 2023; **White:** Likely to open in 2024

California. As of January 1st, California Department of Cannabis Control (DCC) now allows up to $10,000 (previously $5,000) in cannabis to be in an authorized cannabis delivery vehicle at any given time, and up to $5,000 of that can be un-ordered. This allows companies to run ice cream truck models and higher margin on deliveries. Especially useful when targeting a city like Bakersfield (population of 909,235) which may not see Cannabis dispensaries for another 4+ years.

Hirsh Jain @hirshjain

Case study of "local control" in CA - Nov 16: Costa Mesa votes for Prop 64 by wide margin. 2017-19: Surveys show strong resident support for legal shops. City ignores will of the people. Nov 20: voters pass retail ballot measure. Feb 23: No stores open, city "backed up".

Mississippi. Another State that will help to push the conversation with other Southern States to legalize for Medical. The Medical program rolled out in 11 months, with 170+ dispensaries already licensed.
Montana. Population of 1.1M but did $304M in medical and recreational sales in its first year across 400 dispensaries. Montana is a great example of providing access to residents (less than an hour to dispensaries). The state has 5,000+ people working in the industry (0.8% of the workforce).
New Mexico. $40.2M in sales in January 2023 across 585 total sales outlet. The Cannabis industry employs 9,000+ people (0.8% of the workforce), additionally, the lower barrier to entry (similar to Oklahoma) provides a diverse industry, even though it lacks a formal social equity program.

🚚 Interstate Commerce. While there was a lot of buzz around interstate commerce earlier this month when California cannabis regulators sent a letter to the state’s Attorney General, this is more so something to keep an eye on (California needs another State to partner with) rather than anything changing in the near-term. In speaking with MJBizDaily, Hirsh said that he expects “this is a signaling of the trickle that is to come that will take many years to actually build into a river.”

👋 The Highly Objective Podcast is hosted by Dai Truong, who leads Cannabis Investment Banking at Arlington Capital Advisors.. Third-party information presented here and links to third-party content are for informational purposes only and are not intended as a recommendation, offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument, security or investment. The information provided is not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and is subject to change without notice. Linking to third-party sites in no way implies an endorsement or affiliation of any kind between Arlington Capital Advisors, LLC, or its affiliates and any third party. The information in this blog constitutes my own opinions (and any opinions posted by guest bloggers from time to time) and it should not be regarded as a description of services provided by Arlington Capital Advisors, LLC or any affiliate.

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🎙️ Hirsh Jain, Founder, Ananda Strategy